Today I am at theFlood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Network (FCERM.net) 2016 Annual Assembly in Newcastle. The event brings together a really wide range of stakeholders engaged in flood risk management. I’m here to talk about crowd sourcing and citizen science, with both COBWEB and University of Edinburgh CSCS Network member hats on, as the event is focusing on future approaches to managing flood risk and of course citizen science offers some really interesting potential here.
I’m going to be liveblogging today but as the core flooding focus of the day is not my usual subject area I particularly welcome any corrections, additions, etc.
The first section of the day is set up as: Future-Thinking in Flood Risk Management:
Welcome by Prof Garry Pender
Welcome to our third and final meeting of this programme of network meetings. Back at our first Assembly meeting we talked about projects we could do together, and we are pleased to say that two proposals are in the process of submissions. For today’s Assembly we will be looking to the future and future thinking about flood risk management. There is a lot in the day but also we encourage you to discuss ideas, form your own breakout groups if you want.
And now onto our first speaker. Unfortunately Prof Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University cannot be with us today. But Chris Kilby has stepped in for Hayley.
Chris Kilby, Newcastle University – What can we expect with climate change?
Today is 29th June, which means that four years ago today we had the “Toon Monsoon” – around 50mm in 2 hours and the full city was in lockdown. We’ve seen some incidents like this in the last year, in London, and people are asking about whether that is climate change. And that incident has certainly changed thinking and practice in the flood risk management community. It’s certainly changed my practice – I’m now working with sewer systems which is not something I ever imagined.
Despite spending millions of pounds on computer models, the so-called GCMs, these models seem increasingly hard to trust as the academic community realise how difficult to predict flooding risk actually is. It is near impossible to predict future rainfall – this whole area is riven with great uncertainty. There is a lot of good data and thinking behind them, but I now have far more concern about the usefulness of these models than 20 years ago – and that’s despite the fact that these models are a lot better than they were.
So, the climate is changing. We see some clear trends both locally and globally. A lot of these we can be confident of. Temperature rises and sea level rise we have great confidence in those trends. Rainfall seasonality change (more in winter, less in summer), and “heavy rainfall” in the UK at least, has been fairly well predicted. What has been less clear is the extremes of rainfall (convective), and extremes of rainfall like the Toon Monsoon. Those extremes are the hardest to predict, model, reproduce.
The so called UKCP09 projections, from 2009, are still there and are still the predictions being used but a lot has changed with the models we use, with the predictions we are making. We haven’t put out any new projections – although that was originally the idea when UK CP09 projections came out. So, officially, we are still using UKCP09. That produced coherant indications of more frequent and heavy rainfall in the UK. And UKCP09 suggests 15-20% increased in Rmed in winter. But these projections are based on daily rainfall, what was not indicated here was the increased hourly rate. So some of the models looking at decreased summer rainfall, which means a lower mean rainfall per hour, but actually that isn’t looking clear anymore. So there are clear gaps here, firstly with hourly level convective storms, and all climate models have the issue of when it comes to “conveyer belt” sequences of storms, it’s not clear models reliably reproduce these.
So, this is all bad news so far… But there is some good news. More recent models (CMIP5) suggest some more summer storms and accommodate some convective summer storms. And those newer models – CMIP5 and those that follow – will feed into the new projections. And some more good news… The models used in CP09, even high resolution regional models, ran on a resolution of 25km and downscaled using weather generator to 5km but no climate change information beyond 25km. Therefore within the 25km grid box the rain fall is averaged and doesn’t adequately resolve movement of air and clouds, adding a layer of uncertainty, as computers aren’t big/fast enough to do a proper job of resolving individual cloud systems. But Hayley, and colleagues at the Met Office, have been running higher resolution climate models which are similar for weather forecasting models at something like a 1.5km grid size. Doing that with climate data and projecting over the long term do seem to resolve the convective storms. That’s good in terms of new information. Changes look quite substantial: summer precipitation intensities are expected to increase by 30-40% for short duration heavy events. That’s significantly higher than UKCP09 but there are limitations/caveats here too… So far the simulations are on the South East of England only, simulations have been over 10 years in duration, but we’d really want more like 100 year model. And there is still poor understanding of the process and of what makes a thunderstorm – thermodynamic versus circulation changes may conflict. Local thermodynamics are important but that issue of circulation, the impacts of large outbreaks of warm air from across the continent, and that conflict between those processes is far from clear in terms of what makes the difference.
So, Hayley has been working on this with the Met Office, and she now has an EU project with colleagues in the Netherlands which is producing interesting initial results. There is a lot still to do but it does look like a larger increase in convection than we’d previously thought. Looking at winter storms we’ve seen an increase over the last few years. Even the UKCP09 models predicted some of this but so far we don’t see a complete change attributable to climate change.
Now, is any of this new? Our working experience and instrumental records tend to only go back 30-40 years, and that’s not long enough to understand climate change. So this is a quick note of historical work which has been taking place looking at Newcastle flooding history. Trawling through the records we see that the Toon Monsoon isn’t unheard of – we’ve had them three or four times in the last century:
- 16th Set 1913 – 2.85 inches (72mm) in 90 minutes
- 22nd June 1941 – 1.97 inches (50mm) in 35 minutes and 3.74 inches (95mm) in 85 minutes
- 28th June 2012 – 50mm in 90 minutes
So, these look like incidents every 40 years or so looking at historic records. That’s very different from the FEH type models and how they account for Fluvial flooding, storms, etc.
In summary then climate models produce inherently uncertain predictions but major issues remain with extremes in general, and hourly rainfall extremes. Overall picture that is emerging is of increasing winter rainfall (intensity and frequency), potential for increased (summer) convective rainfall, and in any case there is evidence that climate variability over the last century has included similar extremes to those observed in the last decade.
And the work that Hannah and colleagues are working on are generating some really interesting results so do watch this space for forthcoming papers etc.
Q1) Is that historical data work just on Newcastle?
A1) David has looked at Newcastle and some parts of Scotland. Others are looking at other areas though.
Q2) Last week in London on EU Referendum day saw extreme rainfall – not as major as here in 2012 – but that caused major impacts in terms of travel, moving of polling station etc. So what else is taking place in terms of work to understand these events and impacts?
A2) OK, so impacts wise that’s a bit difference. And a point of clarification – the “Toon Monsoon” wasn’t really a Monsoon (it just rhymes with Toon). Now the rainfall in London and Brighton being reported looked to be 40mm in an hour, which would be similar or greater than in Newcastle so I wouldn’t downplay them. The impact of these events on cities particularly is significant. In the same way that we’ve seen an increase in fluvial flooding in the last ten years, maybe we are also seeing an increase in these more intense shorter duration events. London is certainly very vulnerable – especially with underground systems. Newcastle Central here was closed because of water ingress at the front – probably wouldn’t happen now as modifications have been made – and metro lines shut. Even the flooding event in Paris a few weeks back was most severely impacting the underground rail/metro, road and even the Louvre. I do worry that city planners have build in vulnerability for just this sort of event.
Q3) I work in flood risk management for Dumfries and Galloway – we were one of the areas experiencing very high rainfall. We rely heavily in models, rainfall predictions etc. But we had an event on 26th/27th January that wasn’t predicted at all – traffic washed off the road, broke instrument peaks, evacuations were planned. SEPA and the Met office are looking at this but there is a gap here to handle this type of extreme rainfall on saturated ground.
A3) I’m not aware of that event, more so with flooding on 26th December which caused flooding here in Newcastle and more widespread. But that event does sound like the issue for the whole of that month for the whole country. It wasn’t just extreme amounts of daily rainfall, but it was the fact that the previous month had also been very wet. That combination of several months of heavy rainfall, followed by extreme (if not record breaking on their own) events really is an issue – it’s the soul of hydrology. And that really hasn’t been recognised to date. The storm event statistics tend to be the focus rather than storms and the antecedent conditions. But this comes down to flood managers having their own rules to deal with this. In the North East this issue has arisen with the River Tyne where the potential for repurposing rivers for flood water retention has been looked at – but you need 30 day predictions to be able to do that. And if this extreme event following a long period of rain really changes that and poses challenges.
Comment – Andy, Environment Agency) Just to note that EA DEFRA Wales have a programme to look at how we extend FEH but also looking at Paleo Geomorphology to extend that work. And some interesting results already.
Phil Younge, Environment Agency – The Future of Flood Risk Management
My role is as Yorkshire Major Incident Recovery Manager, and that involves three things: repairing damage; investing in at-risk communities; and engaging with those communities. I was brought in to do this because of another extreme weather event, and I’ll be talking about the sorts of things we need to do to address these types of challenges.
So, quickly, a bit of background on the Environment Agency. We are the National flood risk agency for England. And we have a broad remit including risk of e.g. implications of nuclear power stations, management of catchment areas, work with other flood risk agencies etc. And we directly look after 7100 km of river, coastal and tidel raised defences; 22,600 defences, with assets worth over 20 billion. There are lots of interventions we can make to reduce the risk to communities. But how do we engage with communities to make them more resiliant for whatever the weather may throw at them? Pause on that thought and I’ll return to it shortly.
So I want to briefly talk about the winter storms of 2015-16. The Foss Barrier in York is what is shown in this image – and what happened there made national news in terms of the impact on central York. The water levels were unprecedentedly high. And this event was across the North of England, with record river levels across the region and we are talking probably 1 metre higher than we had experienced before, since records began. So the “what if” scenarios are really being triggered here. Some of the defences built as a result of events in 2009 were significantly overtopped, so we have to rethink what we plan for in the future. So we had record rainfall, 14 catchments experienced their highest ever river flow. But the investment we had put in made a difference, we protected over 20,000 properties during storms Desmond and Eva – even though some of those defences have been overtopped in 2009. We saw 15k households and 2,600 businesses flooded in 2009, with 150 communities visited by flood support officers. We issued 92 flood warnings – and we only do that when there is a genuine risk to loss of life. We had military support, temporary barriers in place, etc. for this event but the levels were truly unprecedented.
Significant damage was done to our flood defences across the North of England. In parts of Cumbria the speed and impact of the water, the force and energy of that water, have made huge damage to roads and buildings. We have made substantial work to repair those properties to the condition they were in before the rain. We are spending around £24 million to do that and do it at speed for October 2016.
But what do we do about this? Within UK PLC how do we forecast and manage the impact and consequence of flooding across the country? Following the flooding in Cumbria Oliver Letwin set up the Flood Risk Resilience Review, to build upon the plans the Environment Agency and the Government already has, to look at what must be done differently to support communities across the whole of England. The Review has been working hard across the last four months, and there are four strands I want to share:
- Modelling extreme weather and stress testing resilience to flood risk – What do we plan for? What is a realistic and scalable scenario to plan for? Looking back at that Yorkshire flooding, how does that compare to existing understanding of risk. Reflecting on likely extreme consequences as a yardstick for extreme scenarios.
- Assessing the resilience of critical local infrastructure – How do we ensure that businesses still run, that we can run as a community. For instance in Leeds on Boxing Day our telecommunications were impacted by flooding. So how can we address that? How do we ensure water supply and treatment is fit for these events? How can we ensure our hospitals and health provision is appropriate? How can we ensure our transport infrastructure is up and running. As an aside the Leeds Boxing Day floods happened on a non working day – the Leeds rail station is the second busiest outside London so if that had happened on a working day the impact could have been quite different, much more severe.
- Temporary defences – how can we move things around the country to reduce risk as needed, things like barriers and pumps. How do we move those? How do we assess when they are needed? How do we ensure we had the experience and skills to use those temporary defences? A review by the military has been wrapped into this Resilience Review.
- Flood risk in core cities – London is being used as a benchmark, but we are also looking at cities like Leeds and how we invest to keep these core key cities operating at times of heightened flood risk.
So, we are looking at these areas, but also how we can help our communities to be more resilient. The Environment Agency are looking at community engagement and that’s particularly part of what we are here to do, to develop and work with the wider FCERM community.
We do have an investment programme from 2015-2021 which includes substantial capital investment. We are investing significantly in the North of England (e.g. £54 per person for everyone in Yorkshire, Lancashire, and Cumbria, also East Midlands and Northumbria. And that long planning window is letting us be strategic, to invest based on evidence of need. And in the Budget 2016 there was an additional £700 million for flood risk management to better protect 4,745 homes and 1,700 businesses. There will also be specific injections of investment in places like Leeds, York, Carlisle etc. to ensure we can cope with incidents like we had last year.
One thing that really came out of last year was the issue of pace. As a community we are used to thinking slowly before acting, but there is a lot of pressure from communities and from Government to act fast, to get programmes of work underway within 12 months of flooding incidents. Is that fast? Not if you live in an affected area, but it’s faster than we may be used to. That’s where the wealth of knowledge and experience needs to be available to make the right decisions quickly. We have to work together to do this.
And we need to look at innovation… So we have created “Mr Nosy”, a camera to put down culverts(?) and look for inspect them. We used to (and do) have teams of people with breathing apparatus etc. to do this, but we can put Mr Nosy down so that a team of two can inspect quickly. That saves time and money and we need more innovations that allow us to do this.
The Pitt Review (2008) looked at climate change and future flood and coastal risk management discussed the challenges. There are many techniques to better defend a community, we need the right blend of approach: “flood risk cannot be managed by building ever bigger “hard” defences”; natural measures are sustainable; multiple benefits for people, properties and wildlife; multi-agency approach is the way forward. Community engagement is also crucial to inform the community to understand the scale of the risk, to understand how to live with risk in a positive way. So, this community enables us to work with research, we need that community engagement, and we need efficiency – that big government investment needs to be well spent, we need to work quickly and to shortcut to answers quickly but those have to be the right answers. And this community is well placed to help us ensure that we are doing the right things so that we can assure the communities, and assure the government that we are doing the right things.
Q1) When is that Review due to report?
A1) Currently scheduled for middle of July, but thereabouts.
Q2) You mentioned the dredging of watercourses… On the back of major floods we seem to have dredging, then more 6 weeks lately. For the public there is a perception that that will reduce flood risk which is really the wrong message. And there are places that will continue to flood – maybe we have to move coastal towns back? You can’t just keep building walls that are bigger and bigger.
A2) Dredging depends so much on the circumstances. In Calderdale we are making a model so that people can understand what impact different measures have. Dredging helps but it isn’t the only things. We have complex hydro-dynamic models but how do we simply communicate how water levels are influenced, the ways we influence the river channel. And getting that message across will help us make changes with community understanding. In terms of adaptation I think you are spot on. Some communities will probably adapt because of that, but we can’t just build higher and higher walls. I am keen that flood risk is part of the vision for a community, and how that can be managed. Historically in the North East cities turned their backs on the river, as water quality has improved that has changed, which is great but brings its own challenges.
Q3) You mentioned a model, is that a physical model?
A3) Yes, a physical model to communicate that. We do go out and dredge where it is useful, but in many cases it is not which means we have to explain that when communities think it is the answer to flooding. Physical models are useful, apps are good… But how do we get across some of the challenges we face in river engineering.
Q4) You talked about community engagement but can you say more about what type of engagement that is?
A4) We go out into the communities, listen to the experiences and concerns, gathering evidence, understanding what that flooding means for them. Working with the local authorities those areas are now producing plans. So we had an event in Calderdale marking six months since the flood, discussing plans etc. But we won’t please all the people all of the time, so we need to get engagement across the community. And we need that pace – which means bringing the community along, listening to them, bringing into our plans… That is challenging but it is the right thing to do. At the end of the day they are the people living there, who need to reassured about how we manage risk and deliver appropriate solutions.
The next section of the day looks at: Research into Practice – Lessons from Industry:
David Wilkes – Global Flood Resilience, Arup – Engineering Future Cities, Blue-Green Infrastructure
This is a bit of an amalgam of some of the work from the Blue-Green Cities EPSRC programme, which I was on the advisory board of, and some of our own work at Arup.
Right now 50% of the global population live in cities – over 3.2 billion people. As we look forward, by the middle of this century (2050) we are expecting growth so that around 70% of the world population will live in cities, so 6.3 billion.
We were asked a while ago to give some evidence to the Third Inquiry of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Excellence in the Built Environment info flood migration and resilience, and we wanted to give some clear recommendations that: (1) Spatial planning is the key to long term resilience; (2) Implement programme of improved surface water flood hazard mapping; (3) Nurture capacity within professional community to ensure quality work in understanding flood risk takes place, and a need to provide career paths as part of that nurturing.
We were called into New York to give some support after Hurricane Sandy. They didn’t want a major reaction, a big change, instead they wanted a bottom up resilient approach, cross cutting areas including transportation, energy, land use, insurance and infrastructure finance. We proposed an iterative cycle around: redundancy; flexibility; safe failure; rapid rebound; constant learning. This is a quantum shift from our approach in the last 100 years so that learning is a crucial part of the process.
So, what is a Blue-Green city? Well if we look at the January 2014 rainfall anomaly map we see the shift from average annual rainfall. We saw huge flooding scarily close to London at that time, across the South East of England. Looking at the December 2015 we see that rainfall anomaly map again showing huge shift from the average, again heavily in the South East, but also South West and North of England. So, what do we do about that? Dredging may be part of this… But we need to be building with flood risk in mind, thinking laterally about what we do. And this is where the Blue-Green city idea comes in. There are many levels to this: Understand water cycle at catchment scale; Align with other drivers and development needs; identify partners, people who might help you achieve things, and what their priorities are; build a shared case for investment and action; check how it is working and learn from experience.
Looking, for instance, at Hull we see a city long challenged by flooding. It is a low lying city so to understand what could be done to reduce risk we needed to take a multi faceted view across the long term: looking at frequency/likelihood of risk, understand what is possible, looking at how changes and developments can also feed into local development. We have a few approaches available… There is the urban model, of drainage from concrete into underground drainage – the Blue – and the green model of absorbing surface water and managing it through green interventions.
In the Blue-Green Cities research approach you need to work with City Authority and Community Communications; you need to Model existing Flood Risk Management; Understand Citizens Behaviour, and you need to really make a clear Business Case for interventions. And as part of that process you need to overcome barriers to innovation – things like community expectations and changes, hazards, etc. In Newcastle, which volunteered to be a Blue-Green city research area, we formed the Newcastle Learning and Action Alliance to build a common shared understanding of what would be effective, acceptable, and practical. We really needed to understand citizens’ behaviours – local people are the local experts and you need to tap into that and respect that. Please really value Blue-Green assets but only if they understand how they work, the difference that they make. And indeed people offered to maintain Blue-Green assets – to remove litter etc. but again, only if they value and understand their purpose. And the community really need to feel a sense of ownership to make Blue-Green solutions work.
It is also really important to have modelling, to show that, to support your business case. Options include hard and soft defences. The Brunton Park flood alleviation scheme included landscape proposals, which provided a really clear business case. OfWATT wanted investment from the energy sector, they knew the costs of conventional sewerage, and actually this alternative approach is good value, and significantly cheaper – as both sewer and flood solution – than the previous siloed approach. There are also Grey-Green options – landscaping to store water in quite straightforward purposes, more imaginative purposes, and the water can be used for irrigation, wash down, etc. Again, building the business case is absolutely essential.
In the Blue-Green Cities research we were able to quantify direct and indirect costs to different stakeholders – primary industry, manufacturing, petroleum and chemical, utilities sector, construction, wholesale and retail, transport, hotels and restaurants, info and communication, financial and professional, other services. When you can quantify those costs you really have a strong case for the importance of interventions that reduce risk, that manage water appropriately. That matters whether spending tax payers money or convincing commercial partners to contribute to costs.
Commission of Inquiry into flood resilience of the future: “Living with Water” (2015), from the All Party Group for Excellence in the Built Environment, House of Commons, talk about “what is required is a fundamental change in how we view flood management…”
Q1) I wanted to ask about how much green we would have to restore to make a difference? And I wanted to ask about the idea of local communities as the experts in their area but that can be problematic…
A1) I wouldn’t want to put a figure on the green space, you need to push the boundaries to make a real difference. But even small interventions can be significant. If the Blue-Green asset interrupts the flood path, that can be hugely significant. In terms of the costs of maintaining Blue-Green assets, well… I have a number of pet projects and ideas and I think that things like parks and city bike ways, and to have a flood overflow that also encourages the community to use it, will clearly be costlier than flat tarmac. But you can get Sustrans, local businesses, etc. to support that infrastructure and, if you get it right, that supports a better community. Softer, greener interventions require more maintenance but that can give back to the community all year round, and there are ways to do that. You made another point about local people being the experts. Local people do know about their own locality. Arguably as seasoned professionals we also know quite a bit. The key thing is to not be patronising, not to pretend you haven’t listened, but to build concensus, to avoid head to head dispute, to work with them.
Stephen Garvin, Director Global Resilience Centre, BRE – Adapting to change – multiple events and FRM
I will be talking about the built environment, and adaptations of buildings for flood resilience. I think this afternoon’s workshops can develop some of these areas a bit. I thought it would be good to reflect on recent flooding, and the difficulty of addressing these situations. The nature of flooding can vary so greatly in terms of the type and nature of floods. For instance the 2007 floods were very different from the 2012 flooding and fro the 2014 floods in terms of areas effected, the nature of the flood, etc. And then we saw the 2015/16 storms – the first time that every area at risk of flooding in Scotland and the North of the UK flooded – usually not all areas are hit at once.
In terms of the impact water damage is a major factor. So, for instance in Cumbria 2015, we had record rainfall, over-topped defences, Rivers Eden and Petrol, Water depth of 1.5m in some properties in Carlisle. That depth of flooding was very striking. A lot of terraced properties, with underfloor voids, were affected in Carlisle. And water was coming in from every direction. We can’t always keep water from coming in, so in some ways the challenge is getting water out of the properties. How do we deal with it? Some of these properties had had flood resilience measures before – such as raising the height of electrical sockets – but they were not necessarily high enough or useful enough in light of the high water. And properties change hands, are rented to new tenants, extensions are added – the awareness isn’t consistently there and some changes increase vulnerability to flooding.
For instance, one property had, after 2005 less severe floods had led to flood prevention measures being put in place – door surrounds, airbrick covers, and despite those measures water inundated the property. Why? Well there had been a conservatory added which, despite best efforts to seal it, let in a great deal of water. They had also added an outdoor socket for a tumble dryer a few feet off the ground. So we have to think about these measures – are they appropriate? Do they manage the risk sufficiently? How do we handle the flood memory? You can have a flood resilient kitchen installed, but what happens when it is replaced?
There are two approaches really: Flood resilience essentially allows the water to come in, but the building and its materials are able to recover from flooding; by comparison Flood resistance is about keeping water out, dry proof materials etc. And there are two dimensions here as we have to have a technical approach in design, construction, flood defences, sustainable approaches to drainage; and non-technical approaches – policy, regulation, decision making and engagement, etc. There are challenges here – construction are actually very small companies on the whole – more than 5 people is a big company. And we see insurers who are good at swinging into action after floods, but they do not always consider resilience or resistance that will have a long term impact so we are working to encourage that approach, that idea of not replacing like for like but replacing with better more flood resilient or resistant options. For instance there are solutions for apertures that are designed to keep water out to high depths – strong PVC doors, reinforced, and multi-point lockable for instance. In Germany, in Hamburg they have doors like this (though perforated brick work several feet higher!). You can also use materials to change materials, change designs of e.g. power sockets, service entries, etc.
Professor Eric Nehlsen came up with the idea of cascading flood compartments with adaptive response, starting from adaptation to flooding dry and wet-proofing (where we tend to work) through to more ambitious ideas like adaptation by floating and amphibious housing… Some US coastal communities take the approach of raising properties off the ground, or creating floating construction, particularly where hurricanes occur, but that doesn’t feel like the right solution in many cases here… But we have to understand and consider alternative approaches.
There are standards for floor repair – supported by BRE and industry – and there are six standards that fit into this area, which outline approaches to Flood risk assessment, planning for FRR, Property surveys, design and specification of flood resilient repair, construction work, maintenance and operation (some require maintenance over time). I’m going to use those standards for an FRR demonstration. We have offices in Watford in a Victorian Terrace, a 30 square metre space where we can test cases – have done this for energy efficiency before, have now done for flooding. This gives us a space to show what can be achieved, what interventions can be made, to help insurers, construction, policy makers see the possibilities. The age of the building means it is a simple construction – concrete floor and brick walls – so nothing fancy here. You can imagine some tests of materials, but there are no standards for construction products for repair and new builds for flood resistance and resilience. It is still challenging to drive adoption though – essentially we have to disrupt normal business and practice to see that change to resistant or resilient building materials.
Q1) One of the challenges for construction is that insurance issue of replacing “like by like”…
A1) It is a major challenge. Insurance is renewed every year, and often online rather than by brokers. We are seeing some insurers introducing resilience and resistance but not wide-scale yet. Flood resilience grants through ECLG for Local Authorities and individuals are helpful, but no guarantee of that continuing. And otherwise we need to make the case to the property owner but that raises issues of affordability, cost, accessibility. So, a good question really.
Jaap Flikweert – Flood and Coastal Management Advisor, Royal HaskoningDHV – Resilience and adaptation: coastal management for the future
I’m going to give a practitioners perspective on ways of responding to climate change. I will particularly talk about adaptation which tends to be across three different areas/meanings: Protection (reduce likelihood); Resilience (reduce consequence); and Adaptation, which I’m going to bluntly call “Relocation” (move receptors away). And I’ll talk about inland flooding, coastal flooding and coastal erosion.. But I tend not to talk as much on coastal erosion as if we focus only on risk we can miss the opportunities. But I will be talking about risk – and I’ll be highlighting some areas for research as I talk.
So, how do we do our planning to think about how we do our city planning to manage the risk. I think the UK – England and Wales especially – are at the lead here in terms of Shoreline Management Plans – they are long term and broad scale view, there is a policy for coastal defence (HtL (Hold the Line)/MR (Managed Realignment)/NAI (No Active Intervention), Strong interaction with other sectors. Scotland are making progress here too. But there is a challenging to be flexible, to think about the process of change.
Setting future plans can be challenging – there is a great deal of uncertainty in terms of climate change, in terms of finances. We used to talk about a precautionary approach but I think we need to talk about “Managed-adaptive” approaches with decision pathways. For instance The Thames Barrier is an example of this sort of approach. This isn’t necessarily new work, there is a lot of good research to date about how to do this but it’s much more about mainstreaming that understanding and approach.
When we think about protection we need to think about how we sustain defences in a future with climate change? We will see loading increase (but extent uncertain); value at risk will increase (but extent uncertain); coastal squeeze and longshore impacts. We will see our beaches disappear – with both environmental and flood risk implications. An example from the Netherlands shows HtL feasible and affordable up to about 6m in sea level rise; with sandy solutions (also deal with coastal squeeze), and radical innovation is of vital importance.
We can’t translate that to the UK, it is a different context, but we need to see this as inspirational. In the UK we won’t hold the line for ever… So how do we deal with that? We can think about the structures, and I think there is research opportunity here about how we justify buying time for adaption, and how we design for short life (~20 years), and how we develop adaptable solutions. We can’t Hold the Line forever, but some communities are not ready for that change so we have to work on what we can achieve and how.
In terms of Resilience we need to think about coastal flooding – in principle not different from inland flooding, design to minimise impact, but in practice that is more difficult with lower change/higher consequence raising challenges of less awareness, more catastrophic if it does happen. New Orleans would be a pertinent example here. And when we see raised buildings – as David mentioned – those aren’t always suitable for the UK, they change how a community looks which may not be acceptable… Coastal erosion raises its own challenges too.
When we think of Adaptation/Relocation we have to acknowledge that protection is always technically possible but what if it was unaffordable or unsustainable. For example a disaster in Grahamstown, Queensland saw a major event in January 2011 lead to protective measures but the whole community moving in land in December 2011. There wasn’t a delay on funding etc. as this was an emergency, it forced the issue. But how can we do that in a planned way? We have Coastal change Pathfinders. This approach is very valuable including actual relocation, awareness, engagement lessons, policy innovation. But the approach is very difficult to mainstream because of funding, awareness, planning policy, local authority capacity. And here too I see research opportunities around making the business case for adaptation/relocation.
To take an example here that a colleague is working on. Fairbourne, Gwynedd, on the West Coast of Wales, is a small community, with a few buildings from the 1890s which has grown to 400 properties and over 800 people. Coastal defences were improved in 1981, and again in 2012. But this is a community which really shouldn’t be in that location in the long term, they are in the middle of flood plans. The Parish Council have adopted an SMP policy which has goals across different timings: in the short term to Hold the Line; medium term – Managed Realignment, and long term – No Active Intervention. There is a need to plan now to look at how we move from one position to another… So this isn’t dissemination needed here, it is true communication and engagement with the community, identifying who that community is to ensure that is effective.
So, in closing I think there is research needed around design for short life; consultation and engagement – about useful work done, lessons learned, moving from informing to involving to ownership, defining what a community is; Making the business case for supporting adaptation/relocation – investment in temporary protection to buy time; investment in increasing communities’ adaptive capacity; value of being prepared vs unprepared – damage (to the nation) such as lack of mobility, employability, burden on health and social services. And I’d like to close with the question: should we consider relocation for some inland areas at risk of flooding?
Q1) That closing question… I was driving to a settlement in our area which has major flood risk, is frequently cut off by snow in the summer. There are few jobs there, it is not strategically key although it has a heritage value perhaps. We could be throwing good money after bad to protect a small settlement like that which has minimal contribution. So I would agree that we should look at relocation of some inland properties. Also, kudos to the parish council of Fairbourne for adopting that plan. We face real challenges as politicians are elected on 5 year terms, and getting them persuaded that they need to get communities to understand the long term risks and impacts is really challenging.
A1) I think no-one would claim that Fairbourne was an easy process. The Council adopted the SMP but who goes to parish meetings? But BBC Wales picked it up, rather misreported the timelines, but that raised interest hugely. But it’s worth noting that a big part of Gwynedd and mid Wales faces these challenges. Understanding what we preserve, where investment goes… How do we live with the idea of people living below sea level. The Dutch manage that but in a very different way and it’s the full nation who are on board, very different in the UK.
Q2) What about adopting Dutch models for managing risk here?
A2) We’ve been looking at various ways that we can learn from Dutch approaches, and how that compares and translates to a UK context.
And now, in a change to plans, we are rejuggling the event to do some reflection on the network – led by Prof. Garry Pender – before lunch. We’ll return with 2 minute presentations after that. Garry is keen that all attending complete the event feedback forms on the network, the role of the network, resources and channels such as the website, webinars, events, etc. I am sure FCERM.net would also welcome comments and feedback by email from those from this community who are not able to attend today.
Sharing Best Practice – Just 2-minutes – Mini presentations from delegates sharing output, experience and best practice
I wasn’t able to take many notes from this session, as I was presenting a 2 minute session from my COBWEB colleague Barry Evans (Aberystwyth University), on our co-design work and research associated with our collaboration with the Tal-y-bont Floodees in Mid-Wales. In fact various requirements to re-schedule the day meant that the afternoon was more interactive but also not really appropriate for real time notation so, from hereon, I’m summarising the day.
At this point in the day we moved to the Parallel Breakout sessions on Tools for the Future. I am leading Workshop 1 on crowd sourcing so won’t be blogging them, but include their titles here for reference:
- Workshop 1 – Crowd-Sourcing Data and Citizen Science – An exploration of tools used to source environmental data from the public led by Nicola Osborne CSCS Network with case studies from SEPA. Slides and resources from this session will be available online shortly.
- Workshop 2 – Multi-event modelling for resilience in urban planning An introduction to tools for simulating multiple storm events with consideration of the impacts on planning in urban environments with case studies from BRE and Scottish Government
- Workshop 3 – Building Resilient Communities Best-practice guidance on engaging with communities to build resilience, led by Dr Esther Carmen with case studies from the SESAME project
We finished the day with a session on Filling the Gaps– Future Projects:
Breakout time for discussion around future needs and projects
I joined a really interesting Community Engagement breakout session, considering research gaps and challenges. Unsurprisingly much of the discussion centred on what we mean by community and how we might go about identifying and building relationships with communities. In particular there was a focus on engaging with transient communities – thinking particularly about urban and commuter areas where there are frequent changes in the community.
Final Thoughts from FCERM.net – Prof. Garry Pender
As the afternoon was running behind Garry closed with thank yous to the speakers and contributors to the day.